Complexity Modeling
Rare Event Probability Calculation
- Client
- Major Oil Operator
- Country
- worldwide
- Year
- 2011-2019
- Industry
- Oil & Gas
- Service
- Reliability and Safety
A blowout, the uncontrolled release of reservoir fluids into the wellbore, is the most significant threat to a petroleum development. With a major oil operator, kwantis developed a tool that calculates blowout probability from the actual design of each well.
The challenge
A blowout can cause injury to personnel, damage to the environment, economic damage and legal action. The recognized systems in use worldwide estimate its probability from pure statistics.
Our approach
kwantis and the client developed a tool that calculates blowout probability for operated and non-operated wells, as a function of the actual well design.
Instead of statistics, the calculation rests on the interaction of three main elements, combined as a function of exposure time:
- safety equipment failure
- human error
- environmental conditions
These elements are combined through hundreds of fault trees, which the system assembles automatically for the specific operation.
The outcome
The approach gives a better and more complete description of blowout probability. The client uses these calculations to answer governmental bodies, agencies and boards when they ask about its exposure to well blowout risk.
In 2015 the system was validated by DNV GL, an international company with broad experience in the oil and gas business.
